ON CHANCE

Sorry bloggers, but I have had to take some time off getting my left knee replaced,

Colin

Rachael and Melvyn
on CHANCE

R. Uncle Melvyn?

M. Mm?

R. My teacher says that if you toss a penny thirty times and it comes up heads every time, it's just as likely to come up heads the next time.

M. So?

R. But it's incredibly unlikely to come up heads thirty time in a row, so it must be much more likely to come up tails on the thirty first time.

M. You mean a penny knows how many times it's been tossed heads?

R. S'pose not, but somebody must. Whoever heard of a penny coming up thirty one times in a row? Unless someone has fixed the penny.

M. I can only think of three people who might know how many times: God, the Devil and you!

R. But you don't believe in them.

M. I believe in you.

R. I'm not sure if I believe in you!

M. I'm not sure that I do, either. The chances against me existing are trillions to one, and the particles of which I am made operate at random. This applies to you too.

R. WHAT?

M. We are so unlikely that.....

R. How can randomness make anything?

M. Given enough time, randomness appears to be able to make anything. I'm talking about trillions of years, mind.

R. Where does evolution come in, then?

M. Evolution is a retrospective hypothesis. Patterns discerned after they have occurred.

R. But things have got more complicated and better as time has gone by. Sounds like somebody has planned it.

M. Things have got more complicated, but I'm not so sure about better. People seem to be dead set on destroying their own world. And we think we are the most perfect of creatures. Ha!

R. I read in a book that the chances of having thirteen boy children in a row are 8,000 to one, and eight daughters in a row 500 to one.

M. That proves it then.

R. Proves what?

M. That boys are thicker than girls. I always suspected it.

R. But you still insist that the chances of having another child of the same sex are 50:50?M. I do.

R. I don't really understand it.

M. Neither do I. I was never any good at maths.

R. So it's a mystery then?M. Seems like it. I think we need a marmalade toastie, don't you?

R. And a mug of tea.